Still Short

Getting close to my stop...

safe trading

Update

I forgot yesterday to point out the fact the range was between the 61.8 -100% Fib lines.

We had a break-out today but are looking to close within the range.

Was it a false break????



safe trading

Range Bound???

The Last 4 months has seen sideways action within a clear range that has yet to be broken to the upside or downside.

The current price action is at the top of the range and is at a critical point, does it go through the range or does it fall to the bottom of the range.

once again; i'm favouring the downside but the 'inverse head & shoulders' pattern is a very very strong possibility (L-T pattern vs. S-T pattern)



safe trading

Inverse Head & Shoulders

I became aware of this pattern the other day through another site. Will be interesting to see if it plays out. As you know my bet is on this failing very very soon - i still hold my shorts

note; i used the DJIA chart as it gives a better/clearer picture



Also the beloved XJO - double top in play....define the probability, manage the possibilities




safe trading

I'm in Short

Officially in Short...been waiting patiently..the 'gap' highlighted in blue has now been filled this morning and the 'gaps' in red are my target area.

The XJO is showing some consolidation around these levels, highlighted in the black circle.

Also note; upside targat is 4090...this will create a double top.



safe trading

GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!!

and save our souls....

Lucky I Sleep.......

The XJO (IG Markets) hit my target area over night, while i was sleeping.

I didn't trade this but if i was awake i would have traded is 'short', but sometimes you need that luck and now i am looking to enter my shorts at a 'higher' price.

My target price is 4028, this is the 'top' trend line -



wider view;



-I know the 'trend' is your friend, BUT, the otherday i went 'long' when everyone was 'shorting' and once again i'm shorting and the trend is 'up'.....just what i see

safe trading

Watch the GAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The XJO has left a couple of 'gaps' below. These are my first downside 'targets'.

I beleive for this 'rally' to NOT be just a short-covering rally then these gaps should have been filled to sustain a L-T rally.

In conclusion, I am 'bullish' Short, short-term (until we hit my target area) then i will be 'Bearish' Short/Medium term.




safe trading

XJO time.....

This is my target area to get shorter than Danny DeVito....hahahaha

Note; Last time I was waiting for my target area the market did not quite get there. Subsequently I missed all the recent down move.




Updated DJIA chart.

Note; the DJIA did sort of do what i was expecting. I had expected it to pull-back ever so slightly then shoot north. It didn't pull-back and even over shot my target area. I think we have seen a short-covering rally the past two days and once all these 'shorts-stops' have been wiped out then we will head 'south' once again.



safe trading

XJO - meeting resistence

The Peaks. Also coincides with thte 38.2%

-Define the probability, manage the possibilites



safe trading

The real deal.....

I wanted to post two seperate posts today, one to show the updated DJIA chart and the other to give my analysis work.

I feel like i am coming back into the 'zone' again. Last week i had a 'bad' trade that was stoppped out which kind of discouraged me a little bit. I've sat back and re-assessed my situation and have come-back with a new game plan and am ready to rumble.

I mentioned a little while back that i was going to focus more on the XJO rather than the DJIA but i feel like the DJIA is acting more 'rational' and thus i will be focusing my analysis work on the DJIA.

'CAUTION': Goldman Suchs (GS) reports tomorrow 'before' market open, EPS estimate; 3.48.

I know this is not technical but i will try interpret this information from a T/A perspective.

I think the DJIA will pull-back ever so slightly then rally even higher. This is a 'big call' but i will demonstarte it in the chart below.



safe trading

Bang, Bang!!!!

updated chart....she went long.

also; she did the 'false-break' thing....and bounced straight back...go you good thing - LOL



safe trading

just an observation

This is worth a punt....stop-loss recommendation; 20 pips

Note; false breaks are not uncommon




safe trading

Its been a long time.

Been a little absent this week.

With 'Independence Day' in the U.S and the market doing the opposite to what i suggested i decided to take a little time out and re-assess my strategy.

i was not damaged to bad as that what 'stop-losses' are for. This is what happened



As you can see, the DJIA hit the 50% retracement and that was it.....it faulted and has now broken the upward channel and it seems to be sinking into oblivian....it has fallen below the support line from mid-may (8220) and is struggling to get back above (could be a bear trap???)

I've now gone back and drawn Fib lines in from March to June (Lows to the Highs). I will be using this as my guiding support and resitence lines to trade off. This is the DJIA



XJO time; this graph shows grouping around the L-T down-ward trend line around September 08. Fast forward to now and grouping is starting to fade, i am looking for a 'final' retouch then rejection



This has been a long post.

In conclusion i am looking for the DJIA to hit the 61.8% retrace and bounce back to the L-T downward trend line to clear out a few more shorts before heading 'south'. The XJO has already hit the 61.8% mark and bounced.

i will post more on the anticipated bounce in coming days

safe trading

hey, how u doin?

Just thought i would post update;

Posted the other day about divergence in the 'retrace' of the XJO compared to the DJIA. Around the 29th the XJO had retraced back to the 50% but the DJIA was hovering around the 38.2%, then the XJO had gone to the 61.8% but the DJIA was around the 50%. Now we have come back in line with the DJIA. The graph's tell the story.





We are still in the upward channel, i still have a long bias, until proven otherwise. Tight stops warrented.

Holiday for the U.S this friday, meaning; we will trade 'blind' Monday.

safe trading

Big call time again...

Original big call

24/06/2009 'the big call - 3920 on the 30th June then a move 'down'.'

Well we got there but i think the 'down' call is wrong and we will retest the L-T downward trend once more for good measure.

Another call;

29/06/2009 'i'm actually expecting the XJO to hit the 61.8% number and then fall'

Well we did just that, we fell back through the 38.20% mark.

01/07/2009 'We are heading long back to the L-T downward trend line'

Why; my call on the 24-06 was to hit the 50% retrace mark the collapse, we infact hit the 61.8% mark thus i believe we have more upward room to move.

i think we have also formed an upward channel on the DJIA and this is a good sign because for me it is showing 'direction'



You can see that the upward channel has been forming for the past week, we hit the top of the channel 'late june' - rejected now we have hit the bottom and 'holding' this is the key, we 'hold' this now and we go long till the 7th.

'the holy grail' for the XJO has re-appeared for me - will it play out this time - LOL



safe trading