u decide

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Market Ticker

'Market Ticker' is a very good blog with exception pieces and insights into the world of American corruption.

Today's pieces are probably the three best i have read on the blog and worth a read.

Highly Highly Highly Recommended

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

missed opportunity

The red line is the upside I missed if i had held that long postion, but it wasn't to be and now its time to plan my next trade.



Options expiry today will be very interesting. I was watching the market very closely yesterday and noticed that is wanted to hang around the 3800 level +/- 20pips. This could well be a possible target area and to much divergence will create excellent money making opportunities.

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Twiddling my thumbs

The market has lost some direction the past two days of trading, it just goes to show how much of an influence the U.S has over the world or how indebted the U.S is (how much they owe - LOL). Here is an updated graph with a couple of notes to consider, i feel like we are breaking down again and the 'green shoots' have been nuked by North Korea - via their nuclear testing hahaha.

I stated i had taken a long friday and was hoping for a 1-2% night in the U.S which would then flow into our trading, well i think the risk/reward is not worth it and its time to wait for direction.



Notes;
-Short selling ban has been lifted (i should have blogged this yesterday but i had 'Mondayitis')
-GM getting closer to the inevitable
-North Korea causing sh!t again
-Commodities topping
-Vix stabilising around 30
-$A dollar heading ????????????

Long weekend U.S

The U.S markets will be closed Monday and the XJO and other markets will be trading 'blind' for a short while.

Why do i say this; well i think we may see the bulls back in control over the next few days, we have come back nicely and bounced around and i think are ready to make a new run up, even if its only for a few days.

updated chart; target is probably around the 4000 mark.

note; this is a big call with very very tight stops.....



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In two minds

When in two minds - move stops closer to gaurentee profit but also gain the upside/downside reward.

Updated chart; seems we are consolidating for a 'new' move in a certain direction, be patient and trust your charts



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Close Shorts and Open Longs????

Well it was a nice ride down from 3992. I must say that it was all going according to plan - it easily broke the 23.6% fib line at - 3793 and retraced backed to touch it before now breaking to the high side. It was setting up beautifully to break all the way down to my target of 3450 but all is not lost just yet.

For me the PPT and CPT are doing a wonderful job along side GS et al. at keeping this market up, but for how much further and longer will it last. I noticed that the big banks/broking houses are looking to return the TARP money. To me it seems they have put the TARP money to good use in ramping this market up and now are looking to sell into this rally and then return the funds and let the market fall again before resurrecting it.

Here is an updated chart, tonights session will determine whether or not I close those shorts, remember; 'you don't go broke making money'



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Bullish Or Bearish

I'm too tied and its friday to actually write anything half important.

Here is a chart I have posted once before. The interesting thing is the XJO closing below my Fib line......U.S tonight/Monday trading for the XJO will be interesting....we need to get back above this,



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They should have never given me 'Paint'

Well i thought instead of just posting what i was looking at i would actually give a little more detail and explain it on the graph. It has all been working out just nicely so far, it touched perfectly on Friday nights session (a high) and has fallen through Support levels very neatly.

I have just realised another support level that previuosly didn't stick out to me, its looks quite significant with four touches now and holding.



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On a roll

I'm on a roll today with posting and probably will do one more in the arvo because i feel like it.

This post is about the Federal Budget delivered by Wayne 'the man' Swan.

My Interpretation;

Boring, Boring, Boring.........wait............Boring

The End

-But i would like to make a serious point. The RBA, Treasury and everyone else in Government has admitted that this is the worst recession since basically the 'Great Depression', yet they are predicting 4.5% GROWTH in 2011/2012....its very hard to believe......here is a better analogy by a man whose economic wisdom i respect very much.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/05/13/budget-2009-lets-assume-we-have-a-can-opener/

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I had to do it.

Obama, Bernanke, Summers and Geithner are DUMB, plain and simple - DUMB

I will refrain from posting any articles on this blog but i was reading this article and couldn't believe it, I thought it was april fools day;

Bernanke Says U.S. Banks Must Test More to Identify Other Risks

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said efforts by U.S. banks to raise capital are “encouraging” and called on firms to identify other risks through internal stress tests. The banks, especially those with “trading and investment banking businesses,” should keep monitoring “operational, liquidity and reputational risks,” which weren’t addressed by the exam concluded last week, Bernanke said in a speech yesterday at a Fed conference in Jekyll Island, Georgia.

INTERNAL STRESS TEST????? what do you think the recent stress tests were, they weren't external....the banks, the fed and the government basically wrote there own criteria, filled in the report card then gave themselves a result.....ITS ALL B.S

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We have......

??????????????????????????????

Yesterday's post i said; 'now it looks as if we are headed to the bottom of the 'black channel'.....very near short-term.' - we achieved that in last nights session and this morning trading.

Where too now?

-We need to hold this line to continue our bear-market 'sucker' rally
-next support level is at 3800'ish (Fib line)

i think if we can hold we may touch that magical 4200 mark, that would be amazing and result in an even harder fall, but if not then next target is 3800 and then so on downwards......



Final note; Seems to be a lot of Capital Raising going on overseas and at home a little. This for me is an indicator that most companies think we have hit a S-T top and its a good time to tap the market for capital.

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Morning charting

Well the market is doing what i have been thinking.

We touched the top of the red channel 'beautifully' on Friday nights session, we then rejected it and headed towards the bottom of the channel. We have since broken the channel and came back to 'touch' the bottom of the channel, this has also been rejected and now it looks as if we are headed to the bottom of the 'black channel'.

I'm not 100% sure when we will hit the bottom of the black channel and what will happen when we get there, but i am confident that we will hit that bottom in the very near short-term.

-also remember we are still in the upward channel but i am confident this will be broken to the downside.



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Updated chart

I mentioned that i thought Friday's trading would be a pivotal point, i think i might have been correct - time will tell.

Below is an updated graph with the top of the 'red' channel being hit then rejected. I think we are coming into a 'squeeze' period and a 'pop' is coming - my guess it short and i'm waiting to pull the trigger



First target is the bottom of the 'black' channel then fib lines

-Also, we may pop upwards; top would be 4200.

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Charts Updated

I have a feeling that tonights trading in the U.S will dictate the direction of the market in the coming weeks.

We have had a very good run, the 'stress' test results are out and confidence seems to be coming back.

To be honest the 'stress' test results are a 'joke' - how can Geithner and his buddies outline the criteria, fill in the report card then give themselves a result....its all seems very wierd to me or should i say 'corrupt'....in the end its the taxpayer that foots the bill.





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Chart Updated

Upward trend continues.



Interesting to see if we hit the top of the channel and either reject or go straight through it?????

What i was watching

S-T trade - will it break the red line and retrace to the bottom of the channel, or will it bounce of support and head towards the top of the channel again?



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UP UP and ??????????

Well the recent run has surprised me a little. I was looking for a pull back but now looking at it the market was just consolidating before another leg up.

Does this run still have legs? Well as far as i can see it will only run to 4200 ATM. The graph below show key fib lines and the two green bars above the 3793 (23.60) fib line for me is bullish.



The next graph shows us re-entering the upward trend that began way back in mid-march and has been of big significance. We have basically hit the top of the channel and now are pulling back, which is expected when we have just had such large gains (200pts in 3 days)



Overall; i am still concerned that this is just a 'suckers rally', the market for me is way overbought, i see the market is completly ignoring the bad news and is in full steam ahead mode. for me the big boys and the PPT are doing their jobs beautifully and are playing a big part in this rally with smaller investors being suckered in.

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