the round-up

Head and shoulder - just about dead.

Shorters - cleaned out

Shoulder line - acting as resistance

Upward trend - continues

Overall - the bull continues, but how far? me thinks max is 4200 (fib line)

The Break-down.....

Yesterday i put up a chart showing the upward trend that had started about mid-may and has continued on but is getting weaker.

The graph below shows the bottom channel line starting to break-down from the 21/04/2009 and with a close just below the line yesterday it is in serious danger of not re-entering this up-ward channel. This would fit in with my head and shoulders theory that needs that final leg down (very soon) to complete the pattern.



the graph also shows what i think is the start of a 'new' downward channel that i think will be in play for a while. I believe that the bottom 'green' channel line will be broken and become overhead resistance in the S-T.

safe trading all

The Upward trend continues?

Well my head and shoulders is suffering a little bit today. It seems like the Fib line at 3800ish is acting as an 'atrraction' point.

is seems we have re-entered the upward trend



this trend started about mid-may and is still continuing.

i think this maybe an inside day, but there is a lot of uncertainty about the 'swine flu'.

seems best to sit this one out for a little while.

safe trading

Head and shoulders 'semi' confirmed

Well finally figured out how to post graphs (thankyou photobucket/ IG Charts).

this is what i have been looking at for the past week and all seems to be panning out.



as i type we are heading towards that 'neck line' at 3660 very quickly. After hitting high of 3880 on the Xjo we are now falling hard and are currently at 3700 (-100pips).

I said on Friday i would have rathered us hover around the 3770 level and we have now achieved that and are headed towards my first point on 'support' (3660) which i think will be broken very easily. Helping this is the 'swine flu' which has scared a few fokes and maybe the catalyst for the downturn.

here are my levels of support again

3660 - neck line
3630 - resistance (23/03, 31/03) Support (09/04)
3540 - 61.8% Fib line from Jan High.

safe trading

Late first post.

Hi and Welcome.

My name is Matthew and i have created this blog to chart my T/A development.

All are welcome to leave comments and analysis and if they want to post charts.

Hope you enjoy

safe trading

We hit 3765

I first must state that i use IG Markets as my primary charting system.

My target for the right shoulder was 3770 but we fell short by 5 points. Was this what i was looking for? Well kind of, i was hoping we would hover around these level for all of fridays trading but we only managed to hit the 3765 level during the U.S close with IG managing to open at the 3745 level.

What now. i think we are headed Down to 3450 (50% retrace from Jan high).

Level of resistance;
3630 - resistance (23/03, 31/03) Support (09/04)
3660 - neck line.
3540 - 61.8% Fib line from Jan High.

THEN

3450 - 50% retrace - my target.

A few other points.

-Option expiry did the unexpected; ANZ wanted to close around 17, CBA 37, NAB 22, BHP above 32, seems like the big money was in Bought puts and Sold calls.

We are now struggling due to the large moves yesterday....seems like we are evening out and not really predicting what the U.S is going to do.

I'm slowly learning how to post charts...almost there

safe trading

Head and Shoulder...continued

Hi all

Looks like the head and shoulders pattern is continuing to my target level of 3770. we bounced nicely off the 3660 level and heading higher.

we have also re-entered the up-ward channel from mid-march. whether or not we can head to the top of this channel is questionable and i believe highly unlikely but not impossible. That would then change the scenario and it would be a failed head and shoulders pattern.

i believe this will not happen and we will first retrace back to the 3540 level and then the 3450 level (50%).

Side Note; options expiry today looks like it maybe playing some tricks, so expect the unexpected (JD)

safe trading.

Head and Shoulders forming

Hi all

We are currently at the neck line (3660). We are now shaping up for the rest of the week to be green with completion of the heads and shoulders formation at 3775 or there about.

after reaching 3775 i am thinking we will then retreat back to the 3450 level which is a 50% retracement before we head higher to the 4200 level.

i will investigate on how to post graphs on the weekend.

safe trading

Hello and Welcome

Hi all.

I will do a proper first post in a couple of days but i had to post this link.

Its got plenty of graphs with commentary, highly recommended.

http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?nl_id=341