nice trade

Still in range

The DJIA keeps on hitting resistence of a L-T trend line.

A couple of scenarious could play out here.

-sharp sell-of into xmas
-or a breaking of the L-T resistence, possible 400+ points on the upside (outlined in red)

I've also been watching the AUD/USD. I see weaknes in the $AUD - possible target 0.86c



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UPdated DJIA Chart

You can only hit your head so many times before you get a headache and give up

The XJO is starting to form the same pattern

The issue for me is that the longer it takes to break these resistance lines, the more it validates them as possible pivot points (reversal)

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A very BIG move is coming.......

This could go either way.....

The first chart is the DJIA on a long-term chart



The next is a close up of the action. We can see the expanding megaphone (in Blue) and the L-T resistence line (also in Blue). Also the 50% Fib line is coming back into play.

All very interesting, going to wait for a defeniant move then 'pounce' - LOL

I'm still favouring the short side.... time will tell

Safe Trading

Goodnight and Goodbye

Its time to look at those 'short' positions.....

the DJIA has stormed ahead of the XJO, it almost seems as if the Aussie market knows that the US is bluffing.

the below charts show what i have been looking for

Wider shot

Close up

Also the XJO is looking prime for another touch and rejection of the overhead resistence.



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Looking to Short 'soooon'

Well what a call....this baby ran like a man being chased by his 'lovers' husband - LOL

But the 'brakes' are starting to be applied....for the meantime

this could be a 'rest' period before another leg-up or result in a Lower top on the XJO.... BUT note; we have now re-entered the up-trend - very similar to June/July.....interesting times

Important to note is that the DJIA has gone on to make new highs while the XJO seems to be caught in a 'rut' - seems like the bulls are running out of cash or cashing in their profits....very interesting

Now this chart is why i'm looking to short. I think this rally - especially the DJIA still has legs to run...will be very interesting

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Divergence - Again

Looking at the Weekly charts of both the DJIA and the XJO the divergence is getting scary. I've been watching this for the past week now and have been waiting to see what happens.

I think the verdict is 'long'.

I think the recent re-trace has only been that, a re-trace before this bull market continues higher. The recent consolidation around these levels is telling me the bulls are coming back to play.

XJO

DJIA

Master returns

LAWS OF MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES

1. Every time frame has its own structure.

2. The higher time frames overrule the lower time frames.

3. Prices in the lower time frame structure tend to respect the energy points of the higher time frame structure.

4. The energy points of support/resistance created by the higher time frame's vibration (prices) can be validated by the action of lower time periods.

5. The trend created by the next time period enables us to define the tradable trend.

6. What appears to be chaos in one time period can be order in another time period

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I was looking the wrong way

Guess I was looking for new highs after the market started to consolidate sideways but then it fell out the sky - haha

Thats 'falling wedge' was exactly that....falling!!

The market couldn't get any new legs and dropped on a dime....but not all hope is lost

I have been doing some more reading (Laundry et al.) and all have been calling for a mid-October top and then a big correction - possibly revisiting March lows.

Don't forget we are still in a 'bull' market (rally) and this could go either way.....

I'm looking for a sharp bounce on the XJO next week....the reason being the divergence between the XJO and the DJIA...the XJO has broker the 38.2% mark, while the DJIA is nowhere near it...

this will get interesting.....

XJO

DJIA

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Falling Wedge

With reporting season just about over and markets continuing their rise i think the 4th Q results will be very interesting. The 4th Q results will mark 10 months since the March lows and also 10 months of market stimulus. Will the stimulus wear off or are governments around the world still going to be pumping money into an every lasting 'black hole'......

Anyways here is a graph of a falling Wedge in a 'bull market', to me this is bullish.

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Reporting Season

Reporting Season in the US is well and truely under way.

Caution should be shown and trading kept to a minimum unless you have balls of steel. Stop-losses are HIGHLY recommended

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Market Psychology

Trading = NO emotions

When trading y0u should always close out the surrounding noise and trust your trading strategy and charts.

Obviuosly the other day i got a 'little' confused and started listening to the noise, the noise told me to do the opposite to my charts and that costs money.

Its a valuable lesson i learn ever now and then but i keep making the same mistake, why? I think its because i'm human and i will never learn but i can try and minimise it for future reference.

Anyways i've got a new strategy, here it is;




My 'old' expanding wedge (in red) is just about dead but i've drawn a new one (in black) its a little early but we will see what happens. As you can c i still favour the high side....that 50% fib line is looking mighty tastey right now.....

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Toss of the coin.......

Its time to close out those longs.....

I've been doing some reading and charting today and my thought process has been blurred. As you know i have favoured the upside for a while now but thoughts are creeping into my head, this is not good.

I have been listening to others and their suggestions and it is making my thought process blurry.
So.....its time to close out the longs and re-focus on a new game plan.

The Xjo is 'hovering' around an 'old' support line which is now reacting as resistence. This was highlighted yesterday in the two 'range bound' rectangles (red/green)



This next graph is the one that gives me shivers a little - i keep thinking if the 'top' is in then we will only make 'lower tops' and eventually enter a new down-ward channel.



finally a 'longer' term view. I was told that L-T timeframes should over ride the S-T timeframes but one day the reversal will come

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New range?

Well the XJO has done some 'line searching'

You ask what that is?? Well its bouncing around of Fib lines and 'key support and resistance lines.

This first graph shows the Xjo'breaking' down throught the old 'range' (in red) and falling to find support at the 38.2% fib line (Nov 2007 high - March 2009 Low). It has since bounced off the Fib line and hit the 'bottom' of the old range and filled the gap down.

has the XJO created a new range (s-t)???? This is highlighted in 'green'. Personally i think not, this market is moving and i think its moving UP. I know a lot of people have been calling this as 'the correction' and indicators have turned but we haven't had that final burst to really signal a 'blow off' top....i think its still coming





i think the 38.2% line will hold



Also this is the DJIA bouncing off the 38.2% line ASWELL....



seems to be key support for both markets.......

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Well.....

I still believe these markets are headed higher...it seem its consolidating around these levels.

XJO has fallen back to the bottom of the channel and is holding



while this is an updated DJIA chart.....its touched the bottom of the expanding wedge. It has bounced and now the big call is 'will it touch the top again'....time will tell




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The Expanding Wedge

On the DJIA i see a beautiful pattern forming....i been saying long now for a few days and hopefully we can reach the top of the 'wedge'. My guess is that the top of the wedge will be broken and new highs reached.

But the pattern is quite strong so it may be worth having some each-way hahaha



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Boom Time!!!!

Well she did it....touched the bottom of the range and went straight for the top of the range.

Its now time to see what happend next; i've done some drawing with my crayons - LOL



We can see that the 'X' marks the three touches of the bottom channel.

The red rectangle obviuosly marks the range and the blue line marks downward resitance, whilst the black line is now acting as support in a rising market (s-T).

Ok the important thing now...'is where to now???'. well as you can see she has 'popped' the range and may infact continue on her merry way or fall back into the range.

Point to note, XJO re-entered the up-ward channel and broke the top of the channel and the 'range' all in one move...this seemed like a really impulsive move and will most likely lead to a week in the 'green'.

We had consolidation now my tip is 'long' with trailing stops.....

safe tarding

XJO time...

had a look at the XJO

a 'little' range bound...i been long since last week and am still expecting another run...we have now had 3 touches of the bottom and now its time to test the top or fall through the bottom



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Still Long I reckon

The 38.2 showed support and i think the bounce is on...

The Xjo is indicating a 'green' night in the U.S...we have recovered strongly and look like we will finish in the green....

I'm still looking for a correction...with 'some' U.S 'programs' coming to an end towards the end of the yr, early next yr it will be critical in exposing if the 'free markets' can function again.

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Been Quiet

really finding it hard to get back into the charting....i think the DJIA is a long...

time will tell



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Something from the past

Something I posted a while ago, the H&S




Now updated



As you can see the pattern played out and we are currently at the 'Neckline' - i'm looking for a 'breakout' on high vlume....lets see which way she goes

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Guess whose Back....Back AGAIN!!!!

Yes thats right, i'm back for another go....

I've been on a European Adventure for the past 5 weeks enjoying the sun, beers and partying, it was a hell of an adventure and one i will never forget.

But, the work must start again and here we go.....

Just gazing over the charts i can see we have gone higher and higher and higher....the market is having a great time and its seems 'some' people are shouting the 'recession' is over....well i'm thinking a little differently.

first is the Xjo at the 38.2% retrace....will this be an barrier?



Next is the DJIA; this is my attempt at a pitchfork



and is the DJIA 'curling' over;



thats enough for today, i will go into more detail over the coming week

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Stopped out - 4200 was my stop loss

Still Short

Getting close to my stop...

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Update

I forgot yesterday to point out the fact the range was between the 61.8 -100% Fib lines.

We had a break-out today but are looking to close within the range.

Was it a false break????



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Range Bound???

The Last 4 months has seen sideways action within a clear range that has yet to be broken to the upside or downside.

The current price action is at the top of the range and is at a critical point, does it go through the range or does it fall to the bottom of the range.

once again; i'm favouring the downside but the 'inverse head & shoulders' pattern is a very very strong possibility (L-T pattern vs. S-T pattern)



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Inverse Head & Shoulders

I became aware of this pattern the other day through another site. Will be interesting to see if it plays out. As you know my bet is on this failing very very soon - i still hold my shorts

note; i used the DJIA chart as it gives a better/clearer picture



Also the beloved XJO - double top in play....define the probability, manage the possibilities




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I'm in Short

Officially in Short...been waiting patiently..the 'gap' highlighted in blue has now been filled this morning and the 'gaps' in red are my target area.

The XJO is showing some consolidation around these levels, highlighted in the black circle.

Also note; upside targat is 4090...this will create a double top.



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GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!!

and save our souls....

Lucky I Sleep.......

The XJO (IG Markets) hit my target area over night, while i was sleeping.

I didn't trade this but if i was awake i would have traded is 'short', but sometimes you need that luck and now i am looking to enter my shorts at a 'higher' price.

My target price is 4028, this is the 'top' trend line -



wider view;



-I know the 'trend' is your friend, BUT, the otherday i went 'long' when everyone was 'shorting' and once again i'm shorting and the trend is 'up'.....just what i see

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Watch the GAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The XJO has left a couple of 'gaps' below. These are my first downside 'targets'.

I beleive for this 'rally' to NOT be just a short-covering rally then these gaps should have been filled to sustain a L-T rally.

In conclusion, I am 'bullish' Short, short-term (until we hit my target area) then i will be 'Bearish' Short/Medium term.




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XJO time.....

This is my target area to get shorter than Danny DeVito....hahahaha

Note; Last time I was waiting for my target area the market did not quite get there. Subsequently I missed all the recent down move.




Updated DJIA chart.

Note; the DJIA did sort of do what i was expecting. I had expected it to pull-back ever so slightly then shoot north. It didn't pull-back and even over shot my target area. I think we have seen a short-covering rally the past two days and once all these 'shorts-stops' have been wiped out then we will head 'south' once again.



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XJO - meeting resistence

The Peaks. Also coincides with thte 38.2%

-Define the probability, manage the possibilites



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The real deal.....

I wanted to post two seperate posts today, one to show the updated DJIA chart and the other to give my analysis work.

I feel like i am coming back into the 'zone' again. Last week i had a 'bad' trade that was stoppped out which kind of discouraged me a little bit. I've sat back and re-assessed my situation and have come-back with a new game plan and am ready to rumble.

I mentioned a little while back that i was going to focus more on the XJO rather than the DJIA but i feel like the DJIA is acting more 'rational' and thus i will be focusing my analysis work on the DJIA.

'CAUTION': Goldman Suchs (GS) reports tomorrow 'before' market open, EPS estimate; 3.48.

I know this is not technical but i will try interpret this information from a T/A perspective.

I think the DJIA will pull-back ever so slightly then rally even higher. This is a 'big call' but i will demonstarte it in the chart below.



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Bang, Bang!!!!

updated chart....she went long.

also; she did the 'false-break' thing....and bounced straight back...go you good thing - LOL



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